Reading the daily book

The daily book is the ranking restated as a decision you can act on once a day: five lists, a size on every name, and a hit rate that says how much of it is measured.

The five lists

New longs entered the top band today, new shorts entered the bottom band, and the existing lists are the names already held, each with a stay or exit call. Rotations are the fifth list, and an exit with no replacement prints as out today. Every leg carries up to five names, each row showing the name, its size, and the decile it ranks at or the score it ranks on.

Entry and exit use different thresholds. A long enters at decile 10, stays at 9 and exits at 8, so a name that slips one decile is not sold. A short enters at 1, stays at 2 and exits at 3.

A rotation is one action

A rotation closes a name leaving a leg and opens the name that takes its place in the same leg that day, so the book shows the pair rather than two trades. The number beside it is the opened leg's 30 day mean, winsorised at its own 1 and 99 per cent before averaging, which is the honest read for a same-leg swap: the subtraction form is zero there by construction. An unpaired exit or entry stays what it is.

Size comes from the budget and the vol target

An equity name is 1x, 2x or 3x: the nearest whole number of min(3, 0.35 / realised 30 day vol), clamped to 1 and 3. Realised vol is the name's trailing 30 days, annualised by the square root of 365, the basis the research artefacts use. A name with no usable volatility, which on some venues is an untraded price, is carried at 1.0 rather than unbounded.

fx is sized from an account level gross notional budget, a multiple of the account's equity, and the names inside the budget are equally weighted. Four profiles carry the book's own measured drawdown from the starting capital: cautious 1.0 at 4.42%, standard 3.0 at 12.80%, aggressive 5.0 at 20.58%, and the broker ceiling 12.984 at 46.34%. The profiles come from the house bankroll rubrics rather than from Sharpe, and those rubrics would pick about 27x, above what a broker permits. Half the starting capital is gone at 14.4x and the book first liquidates at 45.95x on 22 June 2023, both past the ceiling. The broker's own initial margin on the major currencies runs 2.5% to 3.8%, and applied to this book's currency mix it sets the 12.984x ceiling. At 50:1 a single 200 bps session move consumes the whole of the posted margin.

The regime decides whether the long leg opens at all. A defensive tape opens no new longs and carries a held long at 1x instead of adding. Shorts are the defensive trade, so they stay open for entry in a defensive tape at a regime weight: 0.5 constructive, 1.0 quiet, 1.5 defensive, and an unproven leg drops one step, never below 1x. The house line applies to size here: Trade less. Hold longer.

The hit rate is a position test

Every class shows its own measured hit rate at a 7 day and a 30 day hold, with the permutation null p value beside it. The null is a random decile of the same day, so a p near 1.0 says the leg finished below what shuffling produces, and a p near 0 says it cleared it. The p is a position test, not proof of significance: one short 7 day leg reads p 0.000 with a t of +0.38.

The book shows hit rates and a winsorised mean, never raw means. On eq_lse the raw mean is a tail artefact: the top 1 per cent of name-days carry 99 per cent of the P&L and 25.8 per cent of its 30 day name-days are exactly zero, so the mean describes a handful of prints. These are entry-horizon leg measurements, not a round trip simulation.

Unproven means no measured edge

A leg is proven when it beats its own null at 30 days. Unproven means it does not, so the book makes no edge claim for it and drops its size one step, never below 1x. Every class's short 30 day leg fails that test, and eq_sgx's long 30 day leg sits below its null as well. fx is measured: its fade clears the null at Z 2.0 with a 30 session hold, so its legs are proven, and the label there means the fade summary is missing from disk.

Equities are a tails market

Crypto ranks sentiment across the liquid third with a regime gate: the news score carried a 30 day edge on the most liquid third of the perp universe, positive in quiet and defensive tapes and inverting in a constructive one, so the regime decides how the read is used. fx fades the 2.0 z-score band: a long when the close is 2.0 standard deviations below its trailing 60 session mean, a short when it is 2.0 above, held for 30 sessions or until the price returns to the mean, whichever comes first. The numbers beside it are the shipped selection's own, the five largest absolute z60 a leg from the majors and the wide set together, measured at 63.9% hits and +32.1 bps net of fees over 1,111 trades (docs/research/2026-09-26-fx-strategy-ideas-measured.md). The older P1 measurement of the same band on the seven majors reads 55.7% hits and +27.9 bps over 1,214 trades (docs/research/2026-09-22-fx-range-edges-measured.md). Equities are the other shape: the rank correlation with the next month is slightly negative, so the middle of the distribution is noise while the top and bottom deciles carry the signal. The eq_us top decile earned 8.65 per cent over 30 days against a random decile's 3.78 per cent.

fx fades the seven majors and the liquid wide set rather than the whole FOREX store: the volume column is zero on most rows, so the liquidity ranking cuts to the rankable names and the devaluation-regime ones are screened out. fx has no news feed yet, so its news read is ungrounded until a forex feed exists.

The regime is seven numbers

The book reads seven confidence scores per venue rather than one label, and the strongest directional score sets the bucket: constructive, quiet or defensive. Every class reads its own venue's file, fx included: venue_fx.parquet, computed over the FOREX store. The bucket is the line that changes the page: it decides whether the long leg opens at all and how the short leg is sized.

What the book is not

Read only, like the rest of the terminal: no orders, and the size is a suggestion. The measurements run over the windows they were made in, so nothing here speaks for the next quarter. What the book gives you is the day's ranking, five names a leg, and an honest label on every leg that has not earned one.